The excavator sales volume in August is expected to be about 17200
After grassroots investigation and market research, CME estimates that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) will be about 17200 in August 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of about - 21%.
By market:
The estimated sales volume in the domestic market is 11700 units, with a growth rate of about - 38%;
The estimated sales volume in the export market is 5500 units, with a growth rate of about 92%.
According to the predicted value of CME, in August 2021, the sales volume of domestic excavator market will decline further, the demand of terminal market will weaken obviously, and the industry inflection point may have arrived.
According to the predicted value of CME, the sales volume of excavators from January to August 2021 is 258000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 23%, including 218000 units in the domestic market, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14%; The export market was 41000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 100%.
Looking inward, economic growth will return to normal in 2021, the pressure to achieve the growth target is small, and the necessity of supporting the bottom through infrastructure is weakened. Xiao C believes that the growth rate of sales volume in the domestic market in the next few months will probably remain in the level range of - 15% - 25%.
Externally, under the combined action of unconventional stimulus policies, low base and vaccine promotion, the global economy has experienced restorative growth and the supply of overseas markets has gradually normalized. Xiao C believes that the export market of mining machinery may continue to remain at the level of 5000 ~ 6000 units in the second half of 2021.
Market competition will be more cruel
In terms of the proportion of sales, the concentration of excavator sales revenue is relatively high. With technological advantages, excellent supply chain system, rapid market response ability and more flexible sales methods, leading enterprises can reduce the dimension of small and medium-sized enterprises, so as to further improve the market share. The survey found that the market share of domestic brand excavators is rapidly increasing, and the market share may exceed 80%.
The economies of scale of leading enterprises are more valuable in the "white hot" stage of price competition. It is difficult for emerging enterprises to enter. Although foreign brands have launched "economic and applicable" excavators suitable for the Chinese market and users, they are optimistic about the toughness and endurance of domestic brands. It is difficult to reverse the market competition pattern in the short term. On the premise of capacity planning of 600000 units, the market competition will be more cruel.
Small series of remarks:
From the perspective of industry operation risk, the hidden worries accumulated under the rapid growth of the market may appear slowly, and the safety and stability of mining machinery industry chain will become increasingly prominent.
In addition, in order to achieve the share target, agents actively or passively hoard some buyouts. The survey found