Aerial work platform: the market of extreme acceleration

China's aerial work platform leasing market before 2019 is known as the "blue ocean", the last "blue ocean" in the construction machinery industry. Lessors everywhere have a leisurely life without pressure, have time and mood, and make a fortune with a dull voice. However, in the fourth quarter of 2019, the industry changed suddenly, and the living environment of lessors suddenly became extremely bad. No one dared to pat his chest and say that this is the "blue ocean" market.

Then why does this happen? What are the deep-seated reasons? What kind of way and mentality should we face all this? Based on more than ten years of experience, the author analyzes them one by one.

The aerial work platform has the characteristics of accelerating the growth of the construction machinery market

The construction machinery industry is a big market of accelerating growth: as we all know, the competition in China's construction machinery industry has always been fierce, and several giants of the industry are fighting fiercely even in the trough period. Compared with the order production and zero inventory mode of European and American construction machinery enterprises, Chinese construction machinery giants have always maintained a large inventory. With a large inventory, there will be a great sales pressure. Therefore, various promotion policies have been issued one after another, which began to give birth to the needs of customers and enable them to ship goods as quickly as possible, Thus, it objectively promotes the development of the whole construction machinery market. So why do China's construction machinery giants do this? Isn't order production and zero inventory fragrant?

Middle aged European and American children with big bellies and growing bodies: we often see the image of China's "infrastructure maniac" on the Internet, such as building a railway in 9 hours and a hospital in 6 days. We can also often see the news of low efficiency in Europe and America, such as the failure to repair a runway at London Airport in seven years, the failure to build a kilometer high-speed railway in the United States in three years, and the slow idlers of Indians. Perhaps this is the fundamental reason! Europe and the United States have matured or aged. They no longer need to grow so fast, and some are even losing weight (internal friction leads to slow development). At this time, China seems to be a young man growing up. His whole body is growing bones, muscles, construction and development. The high efficiency of the Chinese people brings about a surge in demand and an increase in delivery requirements. Whoever can ensure a short delivery time will be better than competitors. Therefore, it is not that Chinese construction machinery giants do not want to engage in order production, but that "ministers and concubines can't do it"! Therefore, it is the objective mentality of the Chinese people for development that has turned China's construction machinery market into a growth promoting market.

Aerial work platform is a market for accelerating the growth of the limit: as a subdivided category of the construction machinery industry, the aerial work platform market naturally has the characteristics of accelerating the growth of the market. Compared with other construction machinery categories, aerial work platform has reached the extreme in terms of delivery date, policy and other needs. For example, in the whole construction machinery industry, only the business conditions of aerial work platform are the most exaggerated, the down payment is lower than other construction machinery categories, the financing period is longer than other construction machinery categories, and there are even accounting periods that other construction machinery categories do not have. The most exaggerated thing is that the high-altitude operation platform lessors have no planned demand habits (of course, this is the reason for the industry and site demand). They get the site order today and will deliver it tomorrow. The requirements for the delivery time are almost crazy. Therefore, compared with the large market of expediting construction machinery, aerial work platform can be called the market of extreme expediting.

Business logic of limit accelerating market

So, the question is, why will aerial work platforms become a market of extreme growth, and why are major manufacturers willing to pay so much investment and give such exaggerated conditions? Off-site capital also poured in one after another, adding weight to the industry? Then we have to look at this issue from the height of history.

Aerial work platform is the only growing industry: as we all know, aerial work platform exists for safe production and replacing scaffold and other operation methods. At present, in a considerable number of places, people still use scaffolds for high-altitude operation, and do not completely use high-altitude operation platforms. For this proportion, the author generally uses "permeability" to measure. For example, if a plant is built and all work at heights are carried out with an aerial work platform, the penetration rate is 100%; If there is no aerial platform, the penetration rate is 0%. As long as the penetration rate of the application scenario corresponding to the aerial work platform does not reach 100% or nearby, there is still room for development in the aerial work platform industry, which is a growing industry.

The growing industry has large space, low risk and reverse cycle: from the experience of the previous construction machinery industry cycle, when other categories of construction machinery, such as tower crane, crane and pump truck, have peaked and declined, only the subdivided category of aerial work platform is not affected and is still maintaining high-speed growth. Because there are still many application scenarios to be developed for aerial work platform, and there are still many potential needs to be tapped, which is far from reaching the peak of demand. Therefore, when the last construction machinery industry cycle peaked, the aerial work platform industry segment achieved "jumping out of the three circles and not in the five elements", laughing at the turmoil of the construction machinery industry, I was at ease.

Overweight growth industry is like bull market speculation, which makes people intoxicated: accordingly, when the giants of China's construction machinery industry struggle in the mire at the bottom of the cycle, they have noticed the aerial work platform industry laughing happily outside. When they struggle, they can't help but take a share. As a result, the extreme acceleration mode of the aerial work platform industry was started. Stimulated by this extremely favorable and exaggerated business policy, many high-altitude operation platform lessors have actually achieved the realm of "using their own operation capacity, borrowing the strength of manufacturers and borrowing chickens to lay eggs". As long as the operation capacity can be met, the courage is big enough, and the favor of the capital side can be obtained, the game can be played very smoothly, and basically there will be no problems in theory. Overweight, a growing industry, is like stock speculation in a bull market. No matter how leveraged, there is no risk in a bull market, because the future market will always rise, the future market will always develop, and everyone can always make money safely and steadily.

Risk and thinking of the extreme market

So, is there really no problem? Can this game be played all the time? Of course, rational people know it's impossible. Even a bull market will collapse. At that time, it is inevitable that there will be no mud and sand and no bones.

Before the last cycle, the major construction machinery giants also believed that the industry would continue to develop. After experiencing the painful lessons of 2013-2016, this time we are obviously much more rational. When there are signs of peaking cycle (decline in excavator sales), we have begun to react and shrink in advance. This also shows that no game can be played all the time. When the aerial work platform market peaked one day, that is, the first cycle of the construction machinery segment market peaked, there will be a lot of blood and sorrow.

We all want to see the scenery, but we should pay more attention to the cliff: of course, we should not treat it as a "tulip bubble" crisis. In fact, I think there is a better metaphor to describe it. Whether it is the manufacturers of aerial work platforms with rapid expansion of production or the lessors with rapid expansion of aircraft fleet, it seems that they are a group of climbers. Everyone wants to climb to a higher height (development and scale) to overlook a better scenery (status and influence). However, we should all pay attention to a basic problem. The height of the mountain is not absolute. If we keep running on the mountain and rush faster and faster, when we rush over the top of the mountain, we will inevitably fall into the cliff under the top of the mountain, with many scars and even no bones.

Pay attention to cliffs and rational mountaineering: of course, rapid mountaineering (rapid development) is human nature, but we can't blind mountaineering regardless of anything. At present, many senior masters have noticed this risk, and they are also crying out. Please don't worry blindly, be rational, stop and so on

The author believes that since we can't violate the human nature of climbing fast, we can only climb fast while paying attention to the rhythm and the surrounding environment. When we find the sign of approaching the cliff, we must slow down and stop, so that we can not rush down the cliff and experience the beautiful scenery on the top of the mountain.

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